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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">grekov</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вестник хирургии имени И.И. Грекова</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Grekov's Bulletin of Surgery</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0042-4625</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2686-7370</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education «Academician I.P. Pavlov First St. Petersburg State Medical University» of the Ministry of Healthcare of the Russion Federation, FSBEI HE I.P.Pavlov SPbSMU MOH Russia</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24884/0042-4625-2018-177-1-11-15</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">grekov-822</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ВОПРОСЫ ОБЩЕЙ НЕОТЛОЖНОЙ ХИРУРГИИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>PROBLEMS OF GENERAL AND SPECIAL SURGERY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ВЕРОЯТНОСТИ РАЗВИТИЯ СТЕРНАЛЬНОЙ ИНФЕКЦИИ У КАРДИОХИРУРГИЧЕСКИХ ПАЦИЕНТОВ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF THE STERNAL WOUND INFECTION IN PATIENTS UNDERGOING CARDIAC SURGERY</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Хубулава</surname><given-names>Г. Г.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Khubulava</surname><given-names>G. G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>академик РАН, д-р мед. наук, проф., главный кардиохирург Северо-Западного региона, Лауреат Государственной премии, зав. первой кафедрой и клиникой хирургии (усовершенствования врачей) им. П. А. Куприянова Военно-медицинской академии им. С. М. Кирова, зав. кафедрой сердечно-сосудистой хирургии СПбГПМУ</p><p> </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Department of Cardiovascular Surgery;</p><p>The First Department and Clinic of Surgery (postgraduate medical education) named after P. A. Kupriyanov</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">ggkh07@rambler.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Шихвердиев</surname><given-names>Н. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shikhverdiev</surname><given-names>N. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>д-р мед. наук, профессор, Лауреат Государственной премии, руководитель лаборатории высоких технологий и трансплантологии кафедры и клиники хирургии (усовершенствования врачей) им. П. А. Куприянова Военно-медицинской академии им. С. М. Кирова, проф. кафедры сердечно-сосудистой хирургии СПбГПМУ</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Department of Cardiovascular Surgery;</p><p>The First Department and Clinic of Surgery (postgraduate medical education) named after P. A. Kupriyanov</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">narniz@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Фогт</surname><given-names>П. Р.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Vogt</surname><given-names>P. R.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>проф. кафедры сердечно-сосудистой хирургии СПбГПМУ</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Department of Cardiovascular Surgery</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">paul.vogt@hirsrambler.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Марченко</surname><given-names>С. П.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Marchenko</surname><given-names>S. P.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>д-р мед. наук, проф. кафедры сердечно-сосудистой хирургии СПбГПМУ, доц. кафедры и клиники хирургии (усовершенствования врачей) им. П. А. Куприянова Военно-медицинской академии им. С. М. Кирова</p><p> </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Department of Cardiovascular Surgery;</p><p>The First Department and Clinic of Surgery (postgraduate medical education) named after P. A. Kupriyanov</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">sergeimarchenkospb@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Суворов</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Suvorov</surname><given-names>V. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>ассистент кафедры сердечно-сосудистой хирургии; Военно-медицинская академия им. С. М. Кирова</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Department of Cardiovascular Surgery</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">vitalikkrak@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Санкт-Петербургский государственный педиатрический медицинский университет МЗ РФ;&#13;
Военно-медицинская академия им. С. М. Кирова МО РФ, Санкт-Петербург</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University, St. Petersburg;&#13;
S. M. Kirov Military Medical Academy, Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, Saint-Petersburg</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Санкт-Петербургский государственный педиатрический медицинский университет МЗ РФ</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University, St. Petersburg</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2018</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>02</month><year>2018</year></pub-date><volume>177</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>11</fpage><lpage>15</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Хубулава Г.Г., Шихвердиев Н.Н., Фогт П.Р., Марченко С.П., Суворов В.В., 2018</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2018</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Хубулава Г.Г., Шихвердиев Н.Н., Фогт П.Р., Марченко С.П., Суворов В.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Khubulava G.G., Shikhverdiev N.N., Vogt P.R., Marchenko S.P., Suvorov V.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.vestnik-grekova.ru/jour/article/view/822">https://www.vestnik-grekova.ru/jour/article/view/822</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Цель исследования</title><p>Цель исследования. Разработать модель прогнозирования вероятности развития стернальной инфекции у кардиохирургических пациентов после операций на сердце с использованием продольной срединной стернотомии. Материал и методы. Выполнен анализ результатов лечения 485 кардиохирургических пациентов, которые разделены на 2 группы. В 1-й группе (265 пациентов) профилактика стернальной инфекции проводилась по стандартной методике, во 2-й группе (220 пациентов) применялась разработанная методика. Оценена частота развития стернальной инфекции в зависимости от факторов риска. Для разработки модели прогнозирования риска развития стернальной инфекции применен метод множественной логистической регрессии. Результаты. Получена математическая модель прогнозирования риска развития стернальной инфекции, в которую включены следующие факторы: применение методики элиминации стернальной инфекции (ОШ=1871,9; р=0,036); наличие сахарного диабета 2-го типа (ОШ=0,207; р=0,022); баллы по шкале EuroScore-I (ОШ=1,04; р=0,04); длительность нахождения в отделении реанимации (ОШ=1,15; р=0,006). Заключение. Разработана эффективная модель прогнозирования вероятности развития стернальной инфекции у кардиохирургических пациентов (p=0,036). Предлагаемая методика профилактики стернальной инфекции позволила снизить частоту ее возникновения у кардиохирургических пациентов с 7,9 до 0,45 %.</p></sec><sec><title> </title><p> </p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>objective</title><p>objective. The aim of the study is to create the model for predicting the probability of the sternal wound infection in patients undergoing cardiac surgery after heart operations with the use of longitudinal median sternotomy. Material and methods. The results of treatment of 485 cardiosurgical patients were analyzed; these patients were divided into 2 groups. In the 1st group (265 patients), the prophylaxis of sternal infection was carried out according to a standard procedure, the method of «elimination of sternal infection» was applied in the 2nd group (220 patients). The rate of sternal infection was estimated depending on risk factors. The multiple logistic regression was used to create the model for predicting the risk of sternal wound infection. Results. The created model for predicting the risk of sternal wound infection includes the following factors: application of the method of «elimination of sternal infection» (OR=1871.9; p=0.036); diabetes mellitus type 2 (OR=0.207; p=0.022); the risk according to EuroScore Logistic (OR=1.04; p=0.04); the duration of stay in ICU (OR=1.15, p=0.006). Conclusion: The created model for predicting the risk of sternal wound infection in cardiosurgical patients is excellent effective (p=0.036). The proposed technique for the prevention of sternal infection allowed to reduce the incidence of its occurrence in patients from 7.9 to 0.45 %.</p></sec><sec><title> </title><p> </p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>стернальная инфекция</kwd><kwd>инфекция послеоперационной раны</kwd><kwd>профилактика стернальной инфекции</kwd><kwd>профилактика раневой инфекции</kwd><kwd>местное применение антибиотиков</kwd><kwd>профилактика медиастинита</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>sternal infection</kwd><kwd>postoperative wound infection</kwd><kwd>elimination of sternal infection</kwd><kwd>prevention of wound infection</kwd><kwd>application of topical antibiotics</kwd><kwd>prevention of mediastinitis</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Хубулава Г. Г., Марченко С. П., Дубова Е. В., Суворов В. В. 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